Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."